66 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brian Serven
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.302); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .248HR 1R 0RBI 0SB 0
Serven is a hold — league-average with no signal either way.
ROS projects AVG .250 YTD → .248 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.302)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 160 PA
wOBA.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
66 / 60 PA
Walk %3.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 120 PA
BABIP.220
lg avg .295 ▼−.075vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
66 / 50 PA
Chase %30.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
66 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.9%→10.3%noise1 HR — Barrel% 10.9% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 10.3%.
BABIP 0.220→0.313 regressednoise.248 AVG — BABIP 0.220 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.319 (xBA 0.239) → 0.313.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 1 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.