MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Carlos Cortes
341 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Carlos Cortes

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.307); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSAVG .241HR 1R 3RBI 4SB 0

Cortes is a hold — contact is flat and his expected line is league average.

His expected wOBA is .307, eight points below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .324, a touch above league, but the gap between the two is .017 — noise, not a skill he's hiding. The contact quality backs the same read: 88.5 mph average exit velocity and a 36.5% hard-hit rate, both slightly under league, with the batted-ball sample past the point where those numbers settle. The one skill that stands out is his plate discipline — a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 27.3% chase rate, both better than league. That keeps him from being a sell. His expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample and there's no unstable stat inflating the line. Nothing to buy, nothing to sell. Hold. 1 HR / 3 R / 4 RBI / 0 SB / .241 AVG won't move the needle — hold, but he's deep-league waiver depth, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.3%−2.9%vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
88.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −0.5 mphvs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.5%
36.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −3.5%vs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.7%vs his norm −2.9%
253 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.307
believable since Jun 3.307*
lg avg .315 −.008vs his norm —
341 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
.324*
lg avg .315 +.009vs his norm —
341 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.4%
16.4%*
lg avg 22.0% −5.6%vs his norm —
341 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.3%vs his norm —
341 / 120 PA
BABIP.291
norm.291*
lg avg .295 −.004vs his norm −.056 BABIP is below his ~.347 normexpect it to rise.
253 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% −0.9%vs his norm —
341 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% −1.2%vs his norm —
341 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.3%→7.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.3% (signal) lifted to career ~9.2% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.291→0.260 regressednoise.241 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.245 (xBA 0.248) → 0.260.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 47 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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