230 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Carlos Cortes
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .264HR 4R 15RBI 18SB 1
Cortes is a buy — stable skill, elite contact, no luck.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.0%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
230 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
230 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm —
230 / 60 PA
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
230 / 120 PA
BABIP.302
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm −.045 ▼BABIP is below his ~.347 norm — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
230 / 50 PA
Chase %24.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
230 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.0%→8.6%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.0% (signal) lifted to career ~9.2% → projected 8.6%.
BABIP 0.302→0.277 regressednoise.264 AVG — BABIP 0.302 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.270) → 0.277.
on-base + lineup15 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 47 G) over ~168 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.