MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Casey Schmitt
409 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Casey Schmitt

SF·LF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.68
ROSAVG .252HR 1R 5RBI 6SB 1

Schmitt is a buy — his contact quality keeps climbing.

His hard-hit rate is at 44.8% against a league average of 40.0%, and that number has been stepping up across the sample. The barrel rate runs with it at 12.3% against a league 8.0%, and 310 batted balls is well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable — his expected wOBA of .355 sits 40 points above league. The actual line reads .336, so there are no lucky bounces holding the production up; it is the other way around, with the surface running behind the skill. The one thing to note is the walk rate, which is tiny at 2.7%, and a chase rate of 36.5% says the strike zone is not a priority. That limits the on-base floor, not the bat. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.3%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
89.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
310 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
310 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.3%
norm12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
310 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.355
.355*
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
409 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
409 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
409 / 60 PA
Walk %2.7%
2.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
409 / 120 PA
BABIP.291
norm.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm +.022 ▲BABIP is above his ~.269 norm — expect it to fall.
310 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
409 / 50 PA
Chase %36.5%
36.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
409 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.3%→10.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 12.3% (signal) tempered to career ~8.0% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.291→0.302 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.288) → 0.302.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 52 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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