215 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Casey Schmitt
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Schmitt is a buy — elite contact, no luck.
His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, now at 45.0% — five points above league average and backed by 160 batted balls, well past the stabilization point. His xwOBA is .357, 42 points above league, and his actual wOBA tracks it closely at .373, so his production is earned, not inflated by luck. Barrel rate (15.0%) nearly doubles the league norm, and his average exit velocity (89.7 mph) sits above league. The strikeout rate is manageable at 20.0%, though the 3.3% walk rate is low. The bat is real, the metrics are stable, and the trajectory is rising. Buy.
Buy
med0.68
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.357, +0.042 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL160 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL160 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.357
lg avg .315 ▲+.042trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 160 PA
wOBA.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 60 PA
Walk %3.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 120 PA
BABIP.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016too early to trust
NOISE160 / 800 BIP