Is Casey Schmitt a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Casey Schmitt's rest-of-season outlook?

Hard-hit rate 45%, barrel 12% — plus contact.

370 PA · week 17

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Casey Schmitt

SF·LF

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

Buy stable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.69

ROSAVG .264HR 5R 24RBI 29SB 4

Schmitt is a buy — elite contact, no luck propping the line.

His expected wOBA is .361, well above the league average of .315, and his sample of 370 plate appearances makes that number trustworthy. His actual wOBA sits at .345, just a shade lower, confirming the production is earned. The engine of this performance is the hard-hit rate, which has been stepping up across the sample and now sits at 44.9% — nearly five points above league — with 283 batted balls, well past the stabilization point. His barrel rate is 12.4% against an 8% league average. He does not walk much (2.4% vs. 8.5% league), and his chase rate is a touch high, but the elite contact quality is the dominant story. The bat is real and getting stronger. Buy. 5 HR / 24 R / 29 RBI / 4 SB / .264 AVG pair with elite contact quality to make Schmitt a deep-league buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %12.4%—+4.4% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —

283 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %44.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —

283 / 50 BBE

Barrel %12.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +4.4% ▲

283 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.361

lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —

370 / 160 PA

wOBA.345

lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —

370 / 200 PA

Strikeout %19.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —

370 / 60 PA

Walk %2.4%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —

370 / 120 PA

BABIP.299

lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm +.030 ▲BABIP is above his ~.269 norm — expect it to fall.

283 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —

370 / 50 PA

Chase %36.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.2%vs his norm —

370 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 12.4%→10.6%signal5 HR — Barrel% 12.4% (signal) tempered to career ~8.0% → projected 10.6%.

BABIP 0.299→0.309 regressednoise.264 AVG — BABIP 0.299 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.315 (xBA 0.293) → 0.309.

on-base + lineup24 R — his run rate over ~188 projected PA.

slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~188 projected PA.

run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (5 in 52 G) over ~188 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons