91 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Christopher Morel
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 35% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.213); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .181HR 1R 2RBI 1SB 1
Morel is a hold — league average bat, one loud hole
ROS projects AVG .161 YTD → .181 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.213)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm −11.1% ▼Barrel % is below his ~13.0% norm — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.213
lg avg .315 ▼−.102vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 160 PA
wOBA.203
lg avg .315 ▼−.112vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 200 PA
Strikeout %35.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.2%vs his norm —
91 / 60 PA
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 120 PA
BABIP.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.260 norm — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
Chase %33.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.9%→10.7%noise1 HR — Barrel% 1.9% (noise) lifted to career ~13.0% → projected 10.7%.
BABIP 0.269→0.286 regressednoise.181 AVG — BABIP 0.269 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.288 (xBA 0.176) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup1 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 20 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.