105 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Christopher Morel
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.211); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Morel is a hold — the strikeouts cap a league-average bat
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .161 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.2%—−9.8% ▼vs his ~13.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.211)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −9.8% ▼
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.211
lg avg .315 ▼−.104vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 160 PA
wOBA.216
lg avg .315 ▼−.099vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.3%vs his norm —
105 / 60 PA
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 120 PA
BABIP.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm −.002 ▼BABIP is below his ~.260 norm — expect it to rise.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
105 / 50 PA
Chase %34.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
105 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.2%→10.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.2% (signal) lifted to career ~13.0% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.258→0.281 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.258 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.173) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 20 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.