week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Connor Seabold
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.93 sits 0.17 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.354 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Seabold is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.7%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.93 sits 0.17 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.354 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
81 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
81 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 TBF
xERA3.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.17vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 TBF
ERA5.25
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
113 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +0.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
113 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.354
lg avg .295 ▲+.059vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
476 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→17.4%signal19 K — K% 17.7% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 17.4% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.93noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.93 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 17 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.