week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Drew Pomeranz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.96); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Pomeranz is a hold — league-average stuff, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.4%—−10.7% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.96)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
95 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
95 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
127 / 200 TBF
xERA4.96
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.86vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
127 / 200 TBF
ERA5.53
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm −10.7% ▼
127 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +0.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.0% norm — expect it to fall.
127 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
127 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
127 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
437 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.4%→20.0%signal25 K — K% 13.4% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 20.0% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 4.96noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.96 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.59 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.