MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Edouard Julien
247 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Edouard Julien

COL·2B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 4AVG .246R 17RBI 12SB 4

Julien is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.

His expected wOBA is .341, 26 points above league average, and he has 247 plate appearances — well past the stabilization point for that number. What's driving it is elite contact quality: a hard-hit rate of 50.7% against a league average of 40.0%, with exit velocity to match (91.3 mph average, 2.3 mph above league). Both have cleared their stabilization thresholds, and each has stepped upward over the sample. His actual wOBA sits at .296, 45 points below his xwOBA, meaning he has actually been unlucky on balls in play. The walk rate (13.8%) and chase rate (18.9%) are both elite, lending further stability. There is no luck propping up this line — the skill is real and more production is coming. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.8%—−5.0% ▼vs his ~11.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.3 mph
91.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
148 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %50.7%
50.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —
148 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −5.0% ▼
148 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.341
believable since May 31.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
247 / 160 PA
wOBA.296
.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
247 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
247 / 60 PA
Walk %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
247 / 120 PA
BABIP.303
norm.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm −.025 ▼BABIP is below his ~.328 norm — expect it to rise.
148 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA
Chase %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.8%→9.7%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.8% (signal) lifted to career ~11.8% → projected 9.7%.
BABIP 0.303→0.331 regressednoise.246 AVG — BABIP 0.303 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.337 (xBA 0.254) → 0.331.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (4 in 50 G) over ~168 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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