MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
211 PA · week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Francisco Lindor

NYM·SS
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.248 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 4AVG .247R 19RBI 7SB 3

Lindor is a buy-low — the bat is fine, the BABIP is not.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up over the sample, now at 48.3% — well above the league average of 40.0%. That is stable contact quality on 151 batted balls, well past the point where it becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .339, .024 above league average, and his strikeout and walk rates are both better than league. The surface stat that is dragging his line down is his BABIP: .248 against .295 league. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 151. That gap is luck, not a declining bat. The contact quality says he is hitting the ball the same as always. The bounces just are not falling. Buy low. 4 HR / 19 R / 7 RBI / 3 SB / .247 AVG — contact quality says buy, but on a drop-tier line the window is only in deep formats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.6%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.248 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
91.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.3%
48.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
211 / 160 PA
wOBA.305
believable since Jul 25.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
211 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.5%
17.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
211 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
211 / 120 PA
BABIP.248
norm.248*
lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm −.039 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
151 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
211 / 50 PA
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
211 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.6%→9.9%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.6% (signal) lifted to career ~10.9% → projected 9.9%.
BABIP 0.248→0.285 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.248 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.294 (xBA 0.256) → 0.285.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~143 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~143 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 24 G) over ~143 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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