MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
105 PA · week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Francisco Lindor

NYM·SS
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.264 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.68
ROSHR 9AVG .256R 36RBI 13SB 5

Lindor is a buy-low — BABIP slump hiding a stable bat.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, sitting at 43.2% — above the league average of 40.0%, and past the point where that number becomes reliable. His average exit velocity and barrel rate also clear their stabilization thresholds and the league lines. So the contact quality is intact. The problem is his actual wOBA of .302, which is .038 below his expected wOBA of .340. The gap is coming from a depressed BABIP of .264 — 31 points below the league average of .295, and with only 74 balls in play, that is noise, not skill. His strikeout rate is well below league average, so he is making plenty of contact. The bat is real; the bounces are not. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.5%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.264 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
90.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.2%
43.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.340
.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 160 PA
wOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
105 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
norm.264*
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm −.023 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
74 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.5%→10.5%signal9 HR — Barrel% 9.5% (signal) lifted to career ~10.9% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.264→0.288 regressednoise.256 AVG — BABIP 0.264 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.253) → 0.288.
on-base + lineup36 R — his run rate over ~268 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~268 projected PA.
run rate / role5 SB — his steal rate (2 in 24 G) over ~268 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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