MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
459 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Francisco Lindor

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from BUY on September 27, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.329); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Lindor is a hold — solid contact, league-average results.

His expected wOBA is .329, .014 above the league average of .315, and he has 459 plate appearances — well past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. The contact quality is better than the results: a 91.6 mph average exit velocity and a 49.5% hard-hit rate, both comfortably above league. Yet his actual wOBA is .320, essentially league average, so the extra contact is not showing up on the stat line. His strikeout rate is 20.3%, slightly better than league, and his walk rate is 9.6%, a touch above average. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample. There is no luck stat dragging him down and no gap to exploit in either direction. Hold. With 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG ROS, he's a streaming-only drop — no counting-category drag worth a roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.8%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.329)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
317 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %49.5%
49.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
317 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
norm8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
317 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
459 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
459 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.3%
20.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
459 / 60 PA
Walk %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
459 / 120 PA
BABIP.242
norm.242*
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm −.045 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
317 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
459 / 50 PA
Chase %29.9%
29.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
459 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (signal) lifted to career ~10.9% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.242→0.261 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.242 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.273 (xBA 0.239) → 0.261.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 24 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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