147 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Gabriel Arias
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 41% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.275); BABIP 0.392 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Arias is a hold — the strikeouts cap a near-average bat.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .200 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.1%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~10.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.275)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 41% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 160 PA
wOBA.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 PA
Strikeout %40.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+18.8%vs his norm —
147 / 60 PA
Walk %5.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
147 / 120 PA
BABIP.392
lg avg .295 ▲+.097vs his norm +.083 ▲BABIP is above his ~.309 norm — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %24.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+13.1%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
Chase %38.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.1%→10.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.1% (signal) held to career ~10.2% → projected 10.2%.
BABIP 0.392→0.288 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.392 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.276 (xBA 0.221) → 0.288.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 10 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.