117 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Gabriel Arias
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 44% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.286); BABIP 0.418 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .201R 7RBI 15SB 0
Arias is a hold — league-average skill with high K rate.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .200 YTD → .201 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.7%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.286)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 44% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.418 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 160 PA
wOBA.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 PA
Strikeout %43.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+21.6%vs his norm —
117 / 60 PA
Walk %5.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 120 PA
BABIP.418
lg avg .295 ▲+.123vs his norm +.109 ▲BABIP is above his ~.309 norm — expect it to fall.
60 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %23.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+12.8%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
Chase %37.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.7%→10.6%signal3 HR — Barrel% 11.7% (signal) tempered to career ~10.2% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.418→0.304 regressednoise.201 AVG — BABIP 0.418 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.294 (xBA 0.231) → 0.304.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~116 projected PA.
slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~116 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 10 G) over ~116 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.