154 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Graham Pauley
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.243); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Pauley is a hold — the sample is too thin to call either way.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .169 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.5%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~5.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.243)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.6 mphvs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %25.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.1%vs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
108 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.243
lg avg .315 ▼−.072vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 160 PA
wOBA.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
154 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
154 / 120 PA
BABIP.255
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm +.007 ▲BABIP is above his ~.248 norm — expect it to fall.
108 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
154 / 50 PA
Chase %30.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
154 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.5%→5.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.5% (signal) tempered to career ~5.5% → projected 5.9%.
BABIP 0.255→0.246 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.255 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.245 (xBA 0.194) → 0.246.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 34 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.