91 PA · week 14
this weekHOLD
last week—
Graham Pauley
data as of June 27, 2026·week 14
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.190); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .180R 19RBI 21SB 2
Pauley is a hold — league-level with limited data.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .169 YTD → .180 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.1%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~5.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.190)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.7 mphvs his norm —
64 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %18.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−21.2%vs his norm —
64 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
64 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.190
lg avg .315 ▼−.125vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 160 PA
wOBA.215
lg avg .315 ▼−.100vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
91 / 60 PA
Walk %5.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 120 PA
BABIP.210
lg avg .295 ▼−.085vs his norm −.038 ▼BABIP is below his ~.248 norm — expect it to rise.
64 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
Chase %25.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.1%→4.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 3.1% (signal) lifted to career ~5.5% → projected 4.9%.
BABIP 0.210→0.228 regressednoise.180 AVG — BABIP 0.210 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.150) → 0.228.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~199 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~199 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 34 G) over ~199 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.