134 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Graham Pauley
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.238); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .182R 3RBI 4SB 0
Pauley is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .169 YTD → .182 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.4%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~5.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.238)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.8 mphvs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %24.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.5%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.238
lg avg .315 ▼−.077vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 160 PA
wOBA.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
134 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
134 / 120 PA
BABIP.233
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm −.015 ▼BABIP is below his ~.248 norm — expect it to rise.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→5.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) tempered to career ~5.5% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.233→0.234 regressednoise.182 AVG — BABIP 0.233 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.234 (xBA 0.186) → 0.234.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 34 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.