MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Hao-Yu Lee
355 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Hao-Yu Lee

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.302) — BABIP 0.325 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Lee is a hold — league average, with one number due to fall

His expected wOBA is .302 — only .013 under the league average of .315 — and he has 355 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The full skill profile backs the same read: 89.6 mph average exit velocity, a 41.3% hard-hit rate, and an 8.7% barrel rate, all a tick above league and all based on 242 batted balls. But his expected wOBA is stepping down across the sample, and his actual wOBA of .324 is being held up by a .325 BABIP that is not reliable yet — he has 242 balls in play of the 800 needed for that stat to settle, so some of the line should give back. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell and nothing is strong enough to buy. Hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.302)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.325 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
believable since May 2789.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
242 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.3%
41.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
242 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
242 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
355 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
355 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.9%
23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
355 / 60 PA
Walk %7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
355 / 120 PA
BABIP.325
.325*
lg avg .295 ▲+.030vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
242 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
355 / 50 PA
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
355 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.7%→8.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.7% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.6%.
BABIP 0.325→0.308 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.325 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.301 (xBA 0.235) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 32 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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