MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
337 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jacob Wilson

ATH·SS
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xwOBA 0.282 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.62
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Wilson is a sell — well below league with no luck excuse.

His expected wOBA is .282, which is .033 below the league average of .315, and it has been stepping down across the sample rather than settling. His actual wOBA is .301, slightly above that, so nothing unlucky is dragging him down. He is not getting crushed by a suppressed BABIP; the line is roughly where his contact quality says it should be. And the contact quality is the problem: an 84.1 mph average exit velocity and a 27.6% hard-hit rate are both well below league, and both are past the sample where those numbers become reliable. He does not strike out, 11.6%, but he also almost never walks, 3.6%, and he chases 42.3% of pitches outside the zone, the kind of swing decisions that cap what the bat can do. Sell. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG rest of season makes him a drop, not even a deep-league streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %2.5%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~1.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.282 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.1 mph
84.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.9 mphvs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.4%vs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.5%
norm2.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
283 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.282
.282*
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —
337 / 160 PA
wOBA.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
337 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.4%vs his norm —
337 / 60 PA
Walk %3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
337 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.027 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.
283 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
337 / 50 PA
Chase %42.3%
42.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.8%vs his norm —
337 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.5%→2.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.5% (signal) tempered to career ~1.9% → projected 2.2%.
BABIP 0.284→0.283 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.282 (xBA 0.262) → 0.283.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 39 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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