Is Jacob Wilson a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jacob Wilson's rest-of-season outlook?

83.8 mph exit velo with 2.6% barrels — zero impact.

278 PA · week 18

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Jacob Wilson

ATH·SS

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18

Sell stable xwOBA 0.289 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60

ROSAVG .258HR 1R 16RBI 17SB 2

Wilson is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected wOBA is .289, which is .026 below the league average of .315, and he has 278 plate appearances — well past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. The trend is stepping down across the sample, not steady. His actual wOBA is .312, slightly higher, but his BABIP is near league average, so there is no bad-luck story dragging the line down. His contact quality tells the same story: average exit velocity of 83.8 mph, a hard-hit rate of 27.7%, and a barrel rate of 2.6% — all well below league. He does strike out only 10.8% of the time, but that discipline cannot compensate for the lack of impact. There is no hidden skill waiting to surface. The bat is what it is. Sell. 1 HR / 16 R / 17 RBI / 2 SB / .258 AVG — a deep-league-only streaming option, not a roster hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %2.6%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~1.9% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.289 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo83.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.2 mphvs his norm —

235 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %27.7%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.3%vs his norm —

235 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm +0.7% ▲

235 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.289

lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —

278 / 160 PA

wOBA.312

lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —

278 / 200 PA

Strikeout %10.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.2%vs his norm —

278 / 60 PA

Walk %4.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —

278 / 120 PA

BABIP.291

lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm −.020 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.

235 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —

278 / 50 PA

Chase %39.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.4%vs his norm —

278 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.6%→2.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 2.6% (signal) tempered to career ~1.9% → projected 2.3%.

BABIP 0.291→0.290 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.289 (xBA 0.268) → 0.290.

on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~152 projected PA.

slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~152 projected PA.

run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 39 G) over ~152 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons