MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
168 PA · week 12
this weekSELL
last week—

Jacob Wilson

ATH·SS
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
Sell stable xwOBA 0.275 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63
ROSHR 2AVG .262R 32RBI 33SB 4

Wilson is a sell — the bat lacks pop and the data confirms it.

His expected wOBA is .275, .040 below the league average of .315, and the sample of 168 plate appearances is past the stabilization threshold — this is a reliable number. The underlying contact metrics are consistently weak across a large batted-ball sample: average exit velocity 84.3 mph, hard-hit rate 30.1%, barrel rate 2.1% — all well below league. His actual wOBA is tracking in the same territory, so there is no luck story masking better skill. He does not strike out much (11.9%), which keeps his batting average afloat, but the power-free profile caps his ceiling at a utility role. The skill is what the numbers say. Sell. 2 HR, 32 R, 33 RBI, 4 SB, .262 AVG is a deep-league profile — fades quickly if the floor drops.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %2.1%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~1.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.275 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.3 mph
84.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.7 mphvs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.9%vs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.1%
norm2.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
168 / 160 PA
wOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
168 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.1%vs his norm —
168 / 60 PA
Walk %3.0%
3.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
168 / 120 PA
BABIP.317
norm.317*
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm +.006 ▲BABIP is above his ~.311 norm — expect it to fall.
143 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.1%→2.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 2.1% (signal) tempered to career ~1.9% → projected 2.0%.
BABIP 0.317→0.293 regressednoise.262 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.288 (xBA 0.267) → 0.293.
on-base + lineup32 R — his run rate over ~294 projected PA.
slugging + lineup33 RBI — his RBI rate over ~294 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (2 in 39 G) over ~294 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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