136 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
James Outman
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 43% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.211); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .160R 17RBI 6SB 7
Outman is a hold — league average with a worrying K rate.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .161 YTD → .160 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.5%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.211)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 43% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.211
lg avg .315 ▼−.104vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
136 / 160 PA
wOBA.228
lg avg .315 ▼−.087vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
136 / 200 PA
Strikeout %42.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+20.6%vs his norm —
136 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
136 / 120 PA
BABIP.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm −.030 ▼BABIP is below his ~.280 norm — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %21.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —
136 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
136 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.5%→10.0%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.5% (signal) lifted to career ~10.9% → projected 10.0%.
BABIP 0.250→0.244 regressednoise.160 AVG — BABIP 0.250 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.244 (xBA 0.147) → 0.244.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~127 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~127 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (4 in 47 G) over ~127 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.