MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
81 PA · week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jose Trevino

CIN·C
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High BABIP 0.279 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.230 is 0.062 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.71
ROSHR 1AVG .222R 7RBI 7SB 0

Trevino is a sell-high — the surface line is BABIP smoke.

His actual wOBA is .292, but his expected wOBA is .230 — a gap of .062 that tells you the surface is inflated. The culprit is BABIP. At .279, it is well above what his contact quality supports. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 66, so that number is still noise. His contact quality is below league average across the board: average exit velo 87.4 mph, hard-hit rate 30.3%, barrel rate 3.0% — all under the league line and past stabilization. The swing-and-miss and chase rates are near league average, so there is no hidden skill to lean on. The data is limited, but what it shows is a below-average bat getting lucky on balls in play. The market is still pricing the actual line. Sell high. 1 HR / 7 R / 7 RBI / 0 SB / .222 AVG makes Trevino a streaming-only drop despite the sell-high window.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~4.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.279 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.230 is 0.062 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
87.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.0%
norm3.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.230
.230*
lg avg .315 ▼−.085vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 160 PA
wOBA.292
.292*
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.3%
17.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
81 / 60 PA
Walk %1.2%
1.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
norm.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm +.038 ▲BABIP is above his ~.241 norm — expect it to fall.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
81 / 50 PA
Chase %41.5%
41.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.0%vs his norm —
81 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.0%→4.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 3.0% (signal) lifted to career ~4.3% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.279→0.259 regressednoise.222 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.257 (xBA 0.217) → 0.259.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~104 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~104 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 14 G) over ~104 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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