MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Manzardo
310 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kyle Manzardo

data as of July 19, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 5AVG .208R 19RBI 16SB 0

Manzardo is a hold — league average, trending the wrong way.

His expected wOBA sits at .309, essentially league average, and the 310 plate appearances make it reliable. But the trajectory is headed down, and his strikeout rate has been climbing — now at 31%, well above the league norm. That caps his batting average and keeps his wOBA (.300) stuck below league average even with a solid 10.8% barrel rate and average exit velocity. There is no luck story to sell high on and no skill gap to buy low into. The walk rate is above league, which provides some floor, but the K rate is too high for the profile to break out. If you own him, keep him; if you don't, there is no edge here. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.8%−0.5%vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
89.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.1 mphvs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% −0.8%vs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.8%vs his norm −0.5%
176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
believable since May 25.309*
lg avg .315 −.006vs his norm —
310 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
.300*
lg avg .315 −.015vs his norm —
310 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 22.0% +9.0%vs his norm —
310 / 60 PA
Walk %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.1%vs his norm —
310 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 −.006vs his norm +.018 BABIP is above his ~.271 normexpect it to fall.
176 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 11.0% +2.8%vs his norm —
310 / 50 PA
Chase %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 28.5% +1.8%vs his norm —
310 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.8%→11.0%signal5 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) lifted to career ~11.3% → projected 11.0%.
BABIP 0.289→0.303 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.223) → 0.303.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~171 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~171 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 52 G) over ~171 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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