305 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Kyle Stowers
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 7AVG .238R 20RBI 15SB 1
Stowers is a buy — contact quality is elite and trending up.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.0%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~16.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %54.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+14.3%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
305 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
305 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
305 / 60 PA
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
305 / 120 PA
BABIP.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm −.009 ▼BABIP is below his ~.330 norm — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —
305 / 50 PA
Chase %33.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
305 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.0%→14.4%signal7 HR — Barrel% 12.0% (signal) lifted to career ~16.6% → projected 14.4%.
BABIP 0.321→0.310 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.321 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.237) → 0.310.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~177 projected PA.
slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~177 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 38 G) over ~177 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.