MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Lane Thomas
374 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Lane Thomas

ATL·LF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.311); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Thomas is a hold — league average, nothing unstable pulling either way.

His expected wOBA is .311, four points under the league average, and his actual wOBA sits at .313 — the two are close enough that luck is not moving the line in either direction. His contact quality backs that up: 89.3 mph off the bat against an 89.0 league average, a 40.9% hard-hit rate right at league. The barrel rate is a little light at 6.4% against 8.0%, which caps the power a bit, but he does walk 11.8% of the time and chases just 20.6% of pitches, so the plate approach gives him a steady floor. The one thing to monitor is the trajectory: his expected wOBA is stepping down across the sample. That is worth watching, not selling. He is what the numbers say he is, and they say average. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.4%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.311)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
235 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
235 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
235 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
believable since Jun 14.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
374 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
374 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.9%
24.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
374 / 60 PA
Walk %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
374 / 120 PA
BABIP.277
norm.277*
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm −.025 ▼BABIP is below his ~.302 norm — expect it to rise.
235 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
374 / 50 PA
Chase %20.6%
20.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
374 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→7.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) lifted to career ~8.3% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.277→0.281 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.277 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.238) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 46 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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