MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Lane Thomas
374 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Lane Thomas

ATL·LF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.311); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .222HR 0R 3RBI 4SB 1

Thomas is a hold — league average, nothing unstable driving it.

His expected wOBA is .311, four points below the league average of .315, and he has 374 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .313, almost identical, so there is no luck story inflating or deflating the line. His contact quality backs up the average: 89.3 mph average exit velocity and a 40.9% hard-hit rate, both essentially at league. The underlying approach is actually better than the surface, with a 20.6% chase rate and 9.5% swinging-strike rate both well better than league, and an 11.8% walk rate above league. But his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, and the barrel rate sits below league at 6.4%. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell and nothing is strong enough to buy. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.4%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.311)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
235 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
235 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
235 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
believable since Jun 14.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
374 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
374 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.9%
24.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
374 / 60 PA
Walk %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
374 / 120 PA
BABIP.277
norm.277*
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm −.025 ▼BABIP is below his ~.302 norm — expect it to rise.
235 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
374 / 50 PA
Chase %20.6%
20.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
374 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→7.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) lifted to career ~8.3% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.277→0.281 regressednoise.222 AVG — BABIP 0.277 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.238) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 46 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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