MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
123 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Leo Jiménez

MIA·3B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.259 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.69
ROSHR 3AVG .257R 11RBI 2SB 2

Jiménez is a buy-low — BABIP slump masks real contact skill.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, now at 44.6% — above the league average of 40.0% — and that signal is reliable, with an exit velocity of 91.4 mph to back it. The bounces have not cooperated: his BABIP sits at .259, .036 below the league average, but BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize and he has 83. That gap is luck, not a drop in ability. His actual wOBA is .284, while his expected wOBA is .329, suggesting the underlying process is much better than the surface. His plate discipline is near league average, with no red flags in strikeout or walk rates. The contact is real; the slump is noise. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.0%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.259 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
believable since Jun 1091.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 160 PA
wOBA.284
.284*
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.3%
20.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
123 / 60 PA
Walk %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
123 / 120 PA
BABIP.259
norm.259*
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm −.014 ▼BABIP is below his ~.273 norm — expect it to rise.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
123 / 50 PA
Chase %25.4%
25.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
123 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.0%→7.5%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to career ~8.1% → projected 7.5%.
BABIP 0.259→0.305 regressednoise.257 AVG — BABIP 0.259 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.310 (xBA 0.254) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup11 R — his run rate over ~139 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~139 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 21 G) over ~139 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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