MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
189 PA · week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ·LF
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell stable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63
ROSHR 2AVG .228R 10RBI 15SB 1

Gurriel is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA sits at .277, well below the .315 league average, and his 189 plate appearances make that number reliable. His contact quality metrics are uniformly below league: 87.3 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, and 4.9% barrel rate — all below the thresholds that define an above-average bat. There is no bad-luck story here: his actual wOBA tracks close to his xwOBA, and his BABIP is not doing unusual work. He chases 40% of pitches outside the zone, far above the league average of 28.5%, which puts steady pressure on his production. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. The bat is where the numbers say it is, and there is nothing unstable to hope for a turnaround. Sell. 2 HR / 10 R / 15 RBI / 1 SB / .228 AVG is a drop; selling the name recoups value before it evaporates.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.9%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.9%
norm4.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
189 / 160 PA
wOBA.242
.242*
lg avg .315 ▼−.073vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.0%
18.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
189 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
189 / 120 PA
BABIP.241
norm.241*
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm −.042 ▼BABIP is below his ~.282 norm — expect it to rise.
143 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
189 / 50 PA
Chase %40.0%
40.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.5%vs his norm —
189 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.9%→6.4%signal2 HR — Barrel% 4.9% (signal) lifted to career ~7.5% → projected 6.4%.
BABIP 0.241→0.271 regressednoise.228 AVG — BABIP 0.241 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.234) → 0.271.
on-base + lineup10 R — his run rate over ~139 projected PA.
slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~139 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 25 G) over ~139 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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