MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mason Black
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Mason Black

KC·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.77 is 2.46 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Black is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His BABIP-against is .253, well below the league average of .295, and that gap is doing all the work holding his ERA down. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 101. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 6.77 — 2.46 runs above the 4.31 he has actually posted, and that gap is regression waiting to happen. The underlying profile agrees: he strikes out only 13.4% of batters, well below the 22% league average and below his own 19.9% career baseline, and that rate has been stepping down across the sample. A pitcher with that little swing-and-miss does not sustain a suppressed BABIP. Sell high. 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP still rate a deep-league sell — trade the window before regression erases that inflated line.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.4%—−6.5% ▼vs his ~19.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.77 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.5%
believable since Jun 1946.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.387
.387*
lg avg .315 ▲+.072vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA6.77
6.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA4.31
4.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm −6.5% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.1%
norm14.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm +6.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
.253*
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %21.4%
21.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
556 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.4%→17.2%signal0 K — K% 13.4% (signal) lifted to career ~19.9% → projected 17.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.77noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 14.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.77 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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