week 20
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Mason Black
data as of August 8, 2026·week 20
new call as of August 8, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (7.58); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Black is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 15 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.3%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~19.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (7.58)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed53.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+13.7%vs his norm —
54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.407
lg avg .315 ▲+.092vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA7.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.48vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA3.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +5.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
333 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.4%signal15 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~19.9% → projected 19.4% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 7.58noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.58 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.