MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Miguel Rojas
252 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Miguel Rojas

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Rojas is a hold — league average, and the sample says so

His expected wOBA is .309 against a league average of .315, and he has 252 plate appearances, past the 160 where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .306, tracking right with it, so there is no luck story pulling the line in either direction. The contact is soft but stable: 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 36.2% hard-hit rate, and 4.8% barrels, all a touch below league. What keeps his line afloat is his strikeout rate — 10.7%, half the league average — and a swinging-strike rate of 8.3%. He puts the ball in play; it just does not come off the bat hard. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, but the level is still close enough to league average that nothing here is unstable. There is no edge to buy and no window to sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.8%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~3.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
207 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
207 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
207 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
believable since Jul 21.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
252 / 160 PA
wOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
252 / 200 PA
Strikeout %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.3%vs his norm —
252 / 60 PA
Walk %6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
252 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
norm.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm −.001 ▼BABIP is below his ~.280 norm — expect it to rise.
207 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
252 / 50 PA
Chase %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
252 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→4.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (signal) tempered to career ~3.1% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.279→0.299 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.277) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 37 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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