186 PA · week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Ryan Jeffers
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .238HR 4R 26RBI 26SB 1
Jeffers is a buy — elite approach backing an earned line.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %13.3%—+5.0% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +5.0% ▲
128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —
186 / 160 PA
wOBA.399
lg avg .315 ▲+.084vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
186 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
186 / 60 PA
Walk %14.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
186 / 120 PA
BABIP.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm +.013 ▲BABIP is above his ~.298 norm — expect it to fall.
128 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
186 / 50 PA
Chase %23.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
186 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.3%→10.3%signal4 HR — Barrel% 13.3% (signal) tempered to career ~8.3% → projected 10.3%.
BABIP 0.311→0.266 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.257 (xBA 0.260) → 0.266.
on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~146 projected PA.
slugging + lineup26 RBI — his RBI rate over ~146 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 37 G) over ~146 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.