304 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Sam Antonacci
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.367) — BABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .294R 26RBI 14SB 8
Antonacci is a hold — league average with no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .280 YTD → .294 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.367)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
218 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
218 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
218 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.367
lg avg .315 ▲+.052vs his norm —
304 / 160 PA
wOBA.358
lg avg .315 ▲+.043vs his norm —
304 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
304 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
304 / 120 PA
BABIP.329
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
218 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
304 / 50 PA
Chase %22.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
304 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→7.1%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.1%.
BABIP 0.329→0.339 regressednoise.294 AVG — BABIP 0.329 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.343 (xBA 0.296) → 0.339.
on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~176 projected PA.
slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~176 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (8 in 43 G) over ~176 projected PA.
rosterstandard.294 AVG
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.