MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sam Antonacci
497 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Sam Antonacci

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.340); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .266HR 0R 6RBI 3SB 2

Antonacci is a hold — average line, no luck underneath.

His expected wOBA is .340 and his actual wOBA is .342, so the surface and the skill agree: this is a slightly above-average hitter, not a hot streak or a cold one. The plate discipline backs that up. He strikes out 15.7% of the time against a league average of 22%, and he chases just 21.5% of pitches against 28.5%. That is a contact-first approach, and it is stable at 497 plate appearances. The catch is that the contact is soft — 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 32.2% hard-hit rate, and 5.1% barrels, all below league. His xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample, which keeps the bat from feeling stuck. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell, and nothing is strong enough to buy. Hold. Deep-league only: 0 HR / 6 R / 3 RBI / 2 SB / .266 AVG is a rotational drag, so hold and stream the counting stats elsewhere.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.340)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.7 mphvs his norm —
352 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 40.0% −7.8%vs his norm —
352 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% −2.9%vs his norm —
352 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.340
believable since May 31.340*
lg avg .315 +.025vs his norm —
497 / 160 PA
wOBA.342
.342*
lg avg .315 +.027vs his norm —
497 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.7%
15.7%*
lg avg 22.0% −6.3%vs his norm —
497 / 60 PA
Walk %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
497 / 120 PA
BABIP.311
.311*
lg avg .295 +.016vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
352 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 11.0% −4.6%vs his norm —
497 / 50 PA
Chase %21.5%
21.5%*
lg avg 28.5% −7.0%vs his norm —
497 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→5.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.7%.
BABIP 0.311→0.311 regressednoise.266 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.312 (xBA 0.270) → 0.311.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~40 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~40 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (8 in 43 G) over ~40 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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