MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sam Antonacci
557 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Sam Antonacci

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.348) — BABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Antonacci is a hold — league-average skill, BABIP will settle

His expected wOBA is .348, just .033 above the league average of .315, and with 557 plate appearances the number has cleared the point where it can be trusted. His actual wOBA is .345, tracking right with it, so nothing on the surface is running away from the skill. The one loose thread is his BABIP: .319 against a league average of .295. That gap is luck, not skill — BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 403, so expect some of that average to come back. The contact underneath is not loud: 87.5 mph average exit velocity and a 33.6% hard-hit rate both sit below league. What keeps him afloat is a 14.7% strikeout rate and a 6.2% swinging-strike rate, well better than league. Hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.348)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
87.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.6%
33.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
403 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.348
believable since May 31.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
557 / 160 PA
wOBA.345
.345*
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —
557 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
557 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
557 / 120 PA
BABIP.319
.319*
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
403 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
557 / 50 PA
Chase %21.8%
21.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
557 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.319→0.324 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.319 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.328 (xBA 0.284) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (8 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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