67 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Sean Keys
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.262); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Keys is a hold — the whiff rate is the only settled thing here
ROS projects AVG .250 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.262)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %52.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+12.5%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
40 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
40 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 160 PA
wOBA.247
lg avg .315 ▼−.068vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 200 PA
Strikeout %34.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.3%vs his norm —
67 / 60 PA
Walk %4.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 120 PA
BABIP.263
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
67 / 50 PA
Chase %36.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
67 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.0%→9.6%noise0 HR — Barrel% 10.0% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.263→0.282 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.263 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.212) → 0.282.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 1 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.