week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Steven Cruz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 24ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Cruz is a hold — good stuff, but ERA-projection is a guess.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.9%—+6.8% ▲vs his ~23.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
ERA4.88
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.78vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm +6.8% ▲
134 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.7% norm — expect it to fall.
134 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
512 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.9%→25.8%signal24 K — K% 29.9% (signal) tempered to career ~23.1% → projected 25.8% over ~19 remaining…
xERA 4.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.