MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Steven Cruz
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Steven Cruz

KC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 6ERA 3.95WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Cruz is a hold — the skill sits right at league average.

His expected ERA is 4.09, against a league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. This is a pitcher whose surface and skill agree, and there is nothing unstable pulling either direction. He strikes out 25.3% of batters, above league average, and walks 8.7%, right around it. His swinging-strike rate of 14.2% and a fastball averaging 98.4 mph point to real stuff, but the contact he allows lands near the middle: an expected wOBA allowed of .312 and an expected ERA at league average. His xERA has been stepping down, so the trend leans slightly his way, but not enough to chase. There is no edge here and no warning. Hold. 6 K and a 1.28 WHIP is waiver-wire filler: a drop-tier hold, not a stash.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.7%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~11.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.3%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~23.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
believable since Jun 1336.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
148 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
148 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
54.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
norm25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.4 mph
98.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.4 mphvs his norm —
868 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→24.3%signal6 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to career ~23.1% → projected 24.3% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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