MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
323 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tommy Edman

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.301); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Edman is a hold — league average, nothing unstable driving it.

His expected wOBA is .301, .014 below the league average of .315, and he has 323 plate appearances, past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .313, nearly identical, so no luck stat is propping the line up or dragging it down. The contact quality is slightly under league — 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 32.6% hard-hit rate, 5.4% barrels — but not by enough to make him a sell. What keeps this from being a clean hold is the trajectory: his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, not holding flat. His walk rate of 6.5% sits under the league average of 8.5%, which caps the on-base floor, but his 20.7% strikeout rate is fine and his swing decisions are ordinary. This is the level he is at. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.4%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~4.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.301)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
221 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
221 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.4%
norm5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
221 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
323 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
323 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.7%
20.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
323 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
323 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
norm.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm +.028 ▲BABIP is above his ~.258 norm — expect it to fall.
221 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
323 / 50 PA
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
323 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.4%→5.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) tempered to career ~4.6% → projected 5.0%.
BABIP 0.286→0.251 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.237 (xBA 0.237) → 0.251.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 1 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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