William Contreras

Contreras is a buy — elite contact, no luck.

His expected wOBA is .340 — .025 above league average — and his sample of 236 plate appearances is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA sits nearly right on it, so no luck is propping up the line. The contact quality is the real story: 90.6 mph average exit velocity and a 44.0% hard-hit rate are both above league, and those metrics have stepped up across the sample, now stable at 184 batted balls. His barrel rate is slightly below league, but his strikeout rate is exceptionally low at 12.7%, meaning he puts the ball in play and makes pitchers work. The skill is real and trending up. Buy.