Rest of Season Projection
A.J.CategoryTristan
6HR6
28R →34
21RBI →26
14SB ←7
.243AVG →.249
Current Season
A.J.CategoryTristan
1HR →2
8R →18
6RBI →14
4SB4
.224AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
A.J. Ewing
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.322)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.359 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.290 is 0.051 below the surface — regression coming
A.J. Ewing: 6 HR / 28 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).