Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryLuke
28HR ←14
67R ←42
59RBI59
8SB ←2
.255AVG ←.237
Current Season
AaronCategoryLuke
17HR ←13
43R ←22
38RBI ←31
5SB ←1
.248AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.389, +0.074 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Judge outpaces Raley 28 HR to 14 — a full 14-homer gap that defines the edge. AVG also separates: .255 vs .237. Both are buy verdicts, but Judge's power ceiling is the differentiator.