MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luke Raley
287 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Luke Raley

SEA·RF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 1AVG .201R 5RBI 7SB 0

Raley is a buy — the contact is real and climbing.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the season to 47.1%, a full 7 points above league average, and his barrel rate of 15.7% is nearly double the league mark — all of it built on 172 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .342, .027 above the league average of .315, and his actual wOBA tracks right with it at .313, so nothing on his line is being propped up. That contact quality has kept climbing, and so has his expected wOBA. The catch: he strikes out 32.4% of the time, and that rate has risen as the sample has grown, which caps his floor. The power and the on-base skill are both earned, and the surface line undersells what the contact says he is. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.7%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
172 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.1%
47.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
172 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.7%
norm15.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +4.1% ▲
172 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
287 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
287 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
287 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
287 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.026 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
172 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.1%
22.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.1%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA
Chase %34.6%
34.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.7%→13.5%signal1 HR — Barrel% 15.7% (signal) tempered to career ~11.6% → projected 13.5%.
BABIP 0.284→0.281 regressednoise.201 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.281 (xBA 0.252) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~37 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~37 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 55 G) over ~37 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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