MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luke Raley
287 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Luke Raley

SEA·RF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Raley is a buy — the contact is elite and the results are earned.

His hard-hit rate is 47.1%, seven points above the league average of 40.0%, and it has been climbing across the sample. That contact quality is what drives the .342 expected wOBA, .027 above league, and the number is stable at 287 plate appearances. His actual wOBA is .313, right at league average — so the surface line undersells a bat that is squaring the ball up this consistently. There is no cheap batting average on balls in play holding that line up; the underlying skill is ahead of what the stat line shows. The strikeout rate is the catch: 32.4% against a league mark of 22.0%, still climbing, and a rate that high will keep the batting average capped even while the contact carries real value. The gap between his expected and actual line is the opportunity. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.7%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
172 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.1%
47.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
172 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.7%
norm15.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +4.1% ▲
172 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
287 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
287 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
287 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
287 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.026 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
172 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.1%
22.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.1%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA
Chase %34.6%
34.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.7%→13.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 15.7% (signal) tempered to career ~11.6% → projected 13.5%.
BABIP 0.284→0.281 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.281 (xBA 0.252) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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