168 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
————————
Luke Raley
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Raley is a buy — elite contact, no luck.
His expected wOBA is .389, .074 above league average, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks similarly, so there is no luck inflating his line. The contact quality is elite: a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 48.5% hard-hit rate, and 20.2% barrel rate, all well above league and past the stabilization threshold. Each of these has stepped up over the sample, too. He does strike out 32.1% of the time, which is high and rising, so the batting average will waver. The production is still earned. Buy.
Buy
high0.75
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.389, +0.074 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL99 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL99 / 50 BBE
Barrel %20.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+12.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 160 PA
wOBA.396
lg avg .315 ▲+.081too early to trust
NOISE168 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 60 PA
Walk %5.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 120 PA
BABIP.341
lg avg .295 ▲+.046too early to trust
NOISE99 / 800 BIP