MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luke Raley
259 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Luke Raley

SEA·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.66
ROSHR 6AVG .212R 22RBI 31SB 1

Raley is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.

His expected wOBA is .343 — .028 above league average — and he is past the 160-PA stabilization threshold, so that mark is trustworthy. The contact quality driving it is elite: 16.1% barrels (double league average), 46.5% hard-hit rate (6.5 points above league), and 90.6 mph exit velo — all on stable samples. xwOBA has been stepping up across the season, confirming the trend. His actual wOBA sits slightly below xwOBA at .319, meaning no luck is inflating his line. The 32.4% strikeout rate is high and also stepping up, which caps the batting average floor, but the power and contact are real and earned. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %16.1%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
155 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.5%
46.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
155 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.1%
norm16.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
155 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
believable since May 30.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
259 / 160 PA
wOBA.319
.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
259 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
259 / 60 PA
Walk %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
259 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
norm.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm −.022 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
155 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.0%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA
Chase %34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 16.1%→13.6%signal6 HR — Barrel% 16.1% (signal) tempered to career ~11.6% → projected 13.6%.
BABIP 0.288→0.283 regressednoise.212 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.282 (xBA 0.253) → 0.283.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~167 projected PA.
slugging + lineup31 RBI — his RBI rate over ~167 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 55 G) over ~167 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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