Rest of Season Projection
AlexCategoryKyle
32K32
3.70ERA ←3.73
1.24WHIP ←1.29
0–0W →1–2
0SV →1–2
Current Season
AlexCategoryKyle
12K →16
5.84ERA →1.93
1.54WHIP1.54
0W →1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alex Hoppe
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.26)
Kyle Finnegan
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.14 is 2.26 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Alex Hoppe: 32 K / 3.70 ERA. Kyle Finnegan: 32 K / 3.73 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).