Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryEvan
2HR →6
23R →33
31RBI ←27
13SB13
.235AVG ←.186
Current Season
BrandonCategoryEvan
0HR →6
9R →22
12RBI →18
5SB →9
.294AVG ←.171
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Lockridge
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Evan Carter
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse
Brandon Lockridge: 2 HR / 23 R. Evan Carter: 6 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).