MLB Daily DeltaWeek 13 · June 23, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Ryan Johnson
LAA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ryan Johnson.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts. Burch Smith’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ryan Johnson wins 1 categories (K); Burch Smith wins 0 (none); 3 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Ryan Johnson
92.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Ryan Johnson
12.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Ryan Johnson
9.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Ryan Johnson
26.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Ryan Johnson
42.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Ryan Johnson
8.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Ryan Johnson
.380
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Ryan Johnson
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 12.83
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
.9002.55
now 1.47
1.24
Ryan Johnson
.9002.55
now 2.33
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4042
now 20
30
Ryan Johnson
4042
now 7
32
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.000.480
now 0
00
Ryan Johnson
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeRyan Johnson — hold.conf 0.55
Tweet