Rest of Season Projection
CarsonCategoryDrake
7HR →14
32R →57
30RBI →56
0SB →1
.265AVG →.283
Current Season
CarsonCategoryDrake
2HR →13
18R →39
17RBI →38
0SB →1
.289AVG →.303
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carson Kelly
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.323)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Drake Baldwin
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.418, +0.103 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Carson Kelly: 7 HR / 32 R. Drake Baldwin: 14 HR / 58 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).