MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
216 PA · week 12
this weekBUY
last week—

Drake Baldwin

ATL·C
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.418, +0.103 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.high 0.81
ROSHR 14AVG .283R 57RBI 56SB 1

Baldwin is a buy — elite contact, earned production.

Drake Baldwin's expected wOBA of .418 is more than a hundred points above league average, and he has enough plate appearances to trust it. His actual wOBA tracks right with it at .404, so his line is not being fluffed by luck. The driver is elite contact quality — a hard-hit rate that has stepped up across the sample, now at 53.8% against a league average of 40.0%, with an 18.6% barrel rate and 92.8 mph exit velo. These numbers are past their stabilization points. The one caveat: his BABIP of .333 sits above the league average and is still noisy with only 145 balls in play, so expect some regression in batting average. That is the only part of his line propped up by luck. The underlying skill is real and getting better. Buy. 14 HR / 57 R / 56 RBI / 1 SB / .283 AVG — a legit catcher asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %18.6%—+7.6% ▲vs his ~11.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.418, +0.103 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %53.8%
53.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+13.8%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel %18.6%
norm18.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.6%vs his norm +7.6% ▲
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.418
.418*
lg avg .315 ▲+.103vs his norm —
216 / 160 PA
wOBA.404
.404*
lg avg .315 ▲+.089vs his norm —
216 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.4%
20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
216 / 60 PA
Walk %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
216 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
norm.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm +.044 ▲BABIP is above his ~.289 norm — expect it to fall.
145 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 18.6%→14.2%signal14 HR — Barrel% 18.6% (signal) tempered to career ~11.0% → projected 14.2%.
BABIP 0.333→0.326 regressednoise.283 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.324 (xBA 0.305) → 0.326.
on-base + lineup57 R — his run rate over ~318 projected PA.
slugging + lineup56 RBI — his RBI rate over ~318 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 48 G) over ~318 projected PA.
rostershallow96 R/RBI

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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