MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
367 PA · week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Drake Baldwin

ATL·C
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xwOBA 0.385, +0.070 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.74
ROSAVG .252HR 5R 29RBI 28SB 1

Baldwin is a buy — elite contact, all earned.

His expected wOBA sits at .385, a full 70 points above the league average of .315, and the sample is well past reliable — 367 plate appearances. His actual wOBA nearly matches it, so there is no luck inflating the line. The foundation is his contact quality, which has stepped up over the sample: 91.6 mph average exit velocity, 50.6% hard-hit rate, and 14.9% barrel rate — all elite marks and stable at 241 batted ball events. He walks more than league average and strikes out slightly less, with chase and whiff rates near par. The production is earned, the skill is real, and the trajectory points up. Buy. 5 HR / 29 R / 28 RBI / 1 SB / .252 AVG projects him as a deep-league asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %14.9%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~11.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.385, +0.070 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
241 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %50.6%
50.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.6%vs his norm —
241 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.9%
norm14.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
241 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.385
.385*
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —
367 / 160 PA
wOBA.372
.372*
lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —
367 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.3%
21.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
367 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
367 / 120 PA
BABIP.308
norm.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm +.019 ▲BABIP is above his ~.289 norm — expect it to fall.
241 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
367 / 50 PA
Chase %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
367 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.9%→13.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 14.9% (signal) tempered to career ~11.0% → projected 13.1%.
BABIP 0.308→0.295 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.308 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.280) → 0.295.
on-base + lineup29 R — his run rate over ~162 projected PA.
slugging + lineup28 RBI — his RBI rate over ~162 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 48 G) over ~162 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups