610 PA · week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Drake Baldwin
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.331 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.71 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Baldwin is a buy — the bat is earned, and it is still climbing.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.8%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~11.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.331 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
414 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %50.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
414 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
414 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.369
lg avg .315 ▲+.054vs his norm —
610 / 160 PA
wOBA.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
610 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
610 / 60 PA
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
610 / 120 PA
BABIP.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm +.042 ▲BABIP is above his ~.289 norm — expect it to fall.
414 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
610 / 50 PA
Chase %34.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
610 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.8%→12.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.8% (signal) tempered to career ~11.0% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.331→0.309 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.331 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.277) → 0.309.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 48 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.