MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · July 30, 2026
Portrait of Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHC · C
Change to
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · C
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22, 1 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Carson Kelly wins 2 (R, RBI); Francisco Alvarez wins 2 (HR, AVG); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Carson Kelly
87.9
Francisco Alvarez
90.3
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Carson Kelly
37.6%
Francisco Alvarez
44.4%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Carson Kelly
5.9%
Francisco Alvarez
16.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Carson Kelly
25.2%
Francisco Alvarez
32.5%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Carson Kelly
9.1%
Francisco Alvarez
15.1%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Carson Kelly
.316
Francisco Alvarez
.343
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Carson Kelly
.220.310
lg AVG .295
now .289
.239
Francisco Alvarez
.220.310
lg AVG .295
now .243
.243

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Carson Kelly
55.20
now 2
2
Francisco Alvarez
55.20
now 4
4
Runshigher is better
Carson Kelly
2021.20
now 18
16
Francisco Alvarez
2021.20
now 12
12
RBIhigher is better
Carson Kelly
2020.20
now 17
15
Francisco Alvarez
2020.20
now 10
10
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Carson Kelly
.0001.20
now 0
0
Francisco Alvarez
.0001.20
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyCarson Kelly — hold.conf 0.60
BuyFrancisco Alvarez — buy.conf 0.66
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