Rest of Season Projection
CarsonCategoryWill
7HR →11
32R →35
30RBI →36
0SB0
.265AVG →.269
Current Season
CarsonCategoryWill
2HR →6
18R →22
17RBI →23
0SB0
.289AVG ←.250
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carson Kelly
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.323)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Will Smith
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Carson Kelly: 7 HR / 32 R. Will Smith: 11 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).