Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryChase
10HR ←9
38R ←34
38RBI →50
10SB ←3
.249AVG →.270
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryChase
5HR →7
23R ←22
23RBI →32
6SB ←2
.275AVG ←.268
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.303 is 0.041 below the surface — regression coming
Chase DeLauter
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.350, +0.035 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ceddanne Rafaela: 10 HR / 38 R. Chase DeLauter: 9 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).