Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategoryRyan
55K ←25
3.74ERA →3.70
1.39WHIP →1.24
2–6W ←2–5
1–5SV ←0
Current Season
ChadCategoryRyan
34K ←12
2.54ERA ←2.75
1.20WHIP →1.17
3W ←2
2SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.76 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryan Thompson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.68 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Chad Patrick: 55 K / 3.74 ERA. Ryan Thompson: 25 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).