Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryKetel
5HR →17
55R ←53
28RBI →53
2SB ←0
.230AVG →.293
Current Season
ChaseCategoryKetel
5HR →10
36R ←35
18RBI →35
1SB ←0
.269AVG ←.262
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.342 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Ketel Marte
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.266 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Chase Meidroth: 5 HR / 55 R. Ketel Marte: 17 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).