Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryMatt
79K ←67
5.23ERA →4.09
1.39WHIP →1.30
5–11W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ColinCategoryMatt
49K ←22
4.70ERA ←8.49
1.37WHIP ←1.71
5W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Rea
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.84 +1.74 vs league with no luck excuse
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Colin Rea: 80 K / 5.22 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).