Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryTim
31K →33
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W ←0–0
0SV0
Current Season
ConnorCategoryTim
15K →16
3.12ERA ←3.32
1.38WHIP ←1.63
1W ←0
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Seabold
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 sits 1.03 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Tim Herrin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.42 is 0.51 above the ERA — regression coming
Connor Seabold: 31 K / 3.70 ERA. Tim Herrin: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).