Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryWandy
31K →32
3.70ERA ←3.73
1.24WHIP ←1.26
1–3W ←0–0
0SV0
Current Season
ConnorCategoryWandy
15K →19
3.12ERA →2.73
1.38WHIP ←1.44
1W ←0
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Seabold
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 sits 1.03 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Wandy Peralta
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.29 is 1.83 above the ERA — regression coming
Seabold projects for 31 K / 3.70 ERA, Peralta for 32 K / 3.73 ERA — nearly identical. The verdict gap (buy-low vs sell-high) drives the decision.