Rest of Season Projection
DannyCategoryJoey
5HR5
20R →31
22RBI ←21
2SB ←0
.173AVG →.198
Current Season
DannyCategoryJoey
3HR ←2
11R ←9
12RBI ←6
1SB ←0
.171AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Danny Jansen
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.254)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Danny Jansen: 5 HR / 20 R. Joey Bart: 5 HR / 31 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).