Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryMark
47K ←35
3.67ERA ←3.72
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–7W ←0–0
0SV →4–7
Current Season
FernandoCategoryMark
30K ←25
2.19ERA ←5.47
1.30WHIP ←1.46
3W ←0
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.99 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Mark Leiter Jr.
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.22 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Fernando Cruz: 49 K / 3.67 ERA. Mark Leiter Jr.: 36 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).