MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Gabriel Arias
CLE · 3B
Change to
Portrait of Graham Pauley
Graham Pauley
MIA · 3B
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Gabriel Arias.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — home runs, RBI, and average. Graham Pauley’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Gabriel Arias wins 3 categories (HR, RBI, AVG); Graham Pauley wins 2 (R, SB).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Gabriel Arias
91.5
Graham Pauley
83.9
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Gabriel Arias
49.1%
Graham Pauley
23.2%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Gabriel Arias
11.3%
Graham Pauley
4.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Gabriel Arias
35.1%
Graham Pauley
25.9%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Gabriel Arias
22.7%
Graham Pauley
10.0%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Gabriel Arias
.288
Graham Pauley
.209
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Gabriel Arias
.200.210
lg AVG .295
now .200
.197
Graham Pauley
.200.210
lg AVG .295
now .169
.180

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Gabriel Arias
55.20
now 2
4
Graham Pauley
55.20
now 1
2
Runshigher is better
Gabriel Arias
2017.40
now 2
8
Graham Pauley
2017.40
now 9
13
RBIhigher is better
Gabriel Arias
2020.80
now 4
16
Graham Pauley
2020.80
now 10
15
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Gabriel Arias
.0002.20
now 0
0
Graham Pauley
.0002.20
now 1
1
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeGabriel Arias — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeGraham Pauley — hold.conf 0.50
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