Rest of Season Projection
HoganCategoryJavier
46K ←42
3.68ERA ←3.79
1.27WHIP →1.25
2–4W →4–10
4–8SV ←0
Current Season
HoganCategoryJavier
31K ←14
2.60ERA ←5.88
1.59WHIP →1.27
2W →3
4SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Hogan Harris
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.35 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
Javier Assad
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.28)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Hogan Harris: 46 K / 3.68 ERA. Javier Assad: 42 K / 3.79 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).