Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryMickey
8HR ←2
16R →35
16RBI ←13
4SB ←0
.195AVG →.253
Current Season
JakeCategoryMickey
0HR0
4R →8
4RBI ←3
1SB ←0
.137AVG →.333
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Rogers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.258)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Mickey Gasper
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.432 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.304 is 0.046 below the surface — regression coming
Jake Rogers: 8 HR / 16 R. Mickey Gasper: 2 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).