Rest of Season Projection
JalenCategoryRyan
28K ←25
3.76ERA →3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
2–4W2–5
0SV0
Current Season
JalenCategoryRyan
18K ←12
3.86ERA →2.75
1.37WHIP →1.17
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jalen Beeks
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.55)
Ryan Thompson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.57 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Beeks leads in K (29 to 25) with similar ERA and WHIP margins. The verdicts diverge despite nearly identical surfaces. Hold Beeks; sell Thompson.