Rest of Season Projection
LukeCategoryTroy
14HR ←8
41R ←38
58RBI ←41
2SB →5
.234AVG →.295
Current Season
LukeCategoryTroy
13HR ←2
22R →23
31RBI ←25
1SB →3
.276AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.382, +0.067 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.399 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.329 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Luke Raley: 14 HR / 41 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).